Monday briefing: Thousands killed, millions displaced – the conflict in Sudan, three months in
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Good morning.
Last week the United Nations discovered a mass grave in Sudan’s West Darfur in which 87 people were buried, prompting the UN high commissioner for Human Rights to demand a “thorough and independent investigation” into activity in the region.
It is the latest troubling news to come out of the country, which has been in a state of conflict since April, when fighting broke out between rival groups. In the three months since, 3.1 million people have been displaced, thousands are thought to have been killed and even more wounded, with entire neighbourhoods destroyed. UN agencies have received credible reports of 21 incidents of conflict-related sexual violence against at least 57 women and girls – in one of the incidents as many as 20 women were reportedly raped in the same attack. There have been reports of extrajudicial killings, ethnic violence, and widespread hunger, with a former UN humanitarian coordinator describing what is happening in Sudan as having “all the signature characteristics of genocide”. Peace talks were suspended last month as both sides continued to violate ceasefires. Over the weekend, representatives for the Sudanese army reportedly returned to Saudi Arabia for peace talks, indicating that they are open to diplomatic avenues for ending the conflict, though expectations are low.
As humanitarian organisations, NGOs and foreign governments watch on in dismay, the conflict shows little signs of ending, with both the army and the Rapid Support Force (RSF) engaging in a bloodthirsty battle to the end. But as the violence threatens to tip into an all-out civil war and plunge the region into crisis, neighbouring countries have been asking how order might be restored.
Today’s newsletter examines the state of play in Sudan, three months into the conflict. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
- Ukraine | Explosions have reportedly hit the Kerch bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula to Russia, a heavily guarded road and rail link that is among the Kremlin’s most important infrastructure projects. The head of the Russian-controlled administration in Crimea, said traffic had been stopped because of “an emergency situation”. Two people have been killed and a child was injured.
- Environment | Southern Europe is bracing for a second “heat storm” in a week. Record temperatures across the Mediterranean could be broken on Tuesday, and people in Italy have been told to prepare for most intense heatwave ‘of all time’. Meanwhile in the US more than 100 million people were under extreme heat advisories this weekend.
- Iran | Iran’s “morality police” have returned to the streets 10 months after the death of a woman in their custody sparked nationwide protests. It comes as authorities announce a new campaign to force women to wear the Islamic headscarf.
- Hospitals | The government is on track to break a key election promise from Boris Johnson to build 40 new hospitals in England by the end of the decade, a damning report by the public spending watchdog has found.
- Music | France’s favourite “petite Anglaise”, the British-born singer and actor Jane Birkin, has died at her home in Paris aged 76. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, paid tribute to Birkin, saying she “embodied freedom and sang the most beautiful words in our language”.
In depth: The battle for control of Sudan, over 90 days in
The conflict in Sudan began in the middle of April, with a power struggle between two rival military factions. The Sudanese army, led by the country’s de facto leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, went head to head with the RSF, a collection of militia who follow Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. In 2019, the two groups were largely in alignment, as they helped oust Sudan’s former authoritarian leader Omar Bashir to create a tentative power-sharing government with civilian groups. This dissolved in 2021 after a military coup involving the Sudanese army and the RSF, which derailed Sudan’s short-lived move into democracy.
In the years since the factions have turned on each other, after negotiations to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese army soured – the primary question being who would defer to who in their new setup. The fault line became fatal in mid-April, after the two groups began battling for control. Over 90 days later, the battle continues.
War crimes
The international criminal court’s (ICC) prosecutor announced that he is investigating new war crimes and crimes against humanity in the country’s West Darfur region – a part of Sudan that 20 years ago was ravaged by atrocities and violence – after a mass grave was found. The 87 victims were mostly Masalit, a largely African farming ethnic group which has been the target of attacks by Arab militias.
The ICC’s prosecutor said that the world and Sudan is “in peril of allowing history to repeat itself”. As the RSF fights the Sudanese army in the country’s capital, Khartoum, the paramilitary group has been accused of waging another war in Darfur where the Janjaweed militias – the group that the RSF evolved out of – were accused of genocide nearly two decades ago.
The RSF are being accused of continuing that same war now, attacking civilians in their homes and levelling huge parts of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. Those who speak out can expect a brutal, even fatal, response: seven activists have been killed in El Geneina after reportedly receiving threats from the militias. And last month a regional governor, Khamis Abakar, was abducted by men in RSF uniforms and murdered hours after he publicly accused the paramilitary group and its Arab military allies of genocide (the RSF has denied involvement in the death of Abakar and of any genocidal activity).
The ICC is also looking into the burning of homes, looting, and is giving priority to crimes against children and sexual and gender-based violence.
A route to peace?
Several countries that neighbour Sudan – Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan – have been affected by their own political upheavals and conflicts in recent years. As such, there are fears that prolonged and intensified fighting in Sudan could further destabilise a region that is already in a precarious position.
Egypt is particularly worried about the fallout of this conflict, particularly on its economy and border. Last week, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sissi led the most high-profile meeting about the conflict, attended by leaders of the other six countries closest to Sudan (those above, plus Eritrea), in an attempt to establish a lasting ceasefire. Neither the RSF nor the Sudanese army attended the summit, but they did praise the gathering on social media. El-Sissi encouraged the two sides to come to the table during an African Union-led negotiation during which all fighting would stop.
The summit has not been welcomed by everyone, however. Before it took place, Sudan’s ambassador to Egypt responded frostily to the cross-country discussions about Sudan’s situation, saying that “outside forces” were effectively meddling and that including so many parties was further complicating the situation.
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